Reflecting on our predictions for 2024

As 2024 comes to a close, the THINK team looks back at the year’s challenges and opportunities through the lens of our January predictions, when we shared our thoughts on what lay ahead for the charity sector. Now we reflect on how these predictions played out and what the year has taught us.

Legacy volatility in uncertain times

This time last year THINK’s Chief Executive Michelle Chambers predicted ongoing challenges due to probate delays, emphasising the importance of monitoring pipeline notifications and seeking interim payments where possible.

Where are we a year later?

“While the backlog in cases in probate has improved and is now only 33,000 (peaked at nearly 70,000 in 2023), the legacy landscape has been volatile, with the drop in house prices and a lower death rate in the winter of 2023/24 impacting the value of legacies. As ever, there have been winners and losers in terms of overall legacy income.”

Adapting to shifting recruitment priorities

Gary Kernahan forecasted a tough year for recruitment and retention, urging charities to focus on retention strategies and better promotion of benefits.

Where are we a year later?

Jo McGuinness, THINK’s new Recruitment Manager:

“Recruitment and retention has continued to be challenging for organisations regardless of size during 2024. Organisations have continued to feel the squeeze impacted by the cost of living, and as a result fundraising teams continue to be restructured and reshaped. We have seen a lot of movement across the sector, and an increase in salary remains the top motivating factor for candidates changing roles. We are still seeing organisations limiting their recruitment pools by not promoting flexible working and all the benefits they offer.”

Women driving change in philanthropy

Simon Dickson predicted the growing influence of women in philanthropy, fuelled by an increasing number of wealthy female donors and high-profile collaborations focused on environmental and social causes.

Where are we a year later?

“Billionaire philanthropist MacKenzie Scott has quietly given nearly $100 million to eight nonprofits since the beginning of September and also gave at least two additional grants worth a combined $24 million over the summer so I would say that demonstrates female philanthropy is a powerful force. And she is not alone. The number of female millionaires is growing globally, and this is helping to fuel the growth in female philanthropy with more money directed to marginalised or under-funded causes. Not as much currently is being directed to environment and climate change as I would personally like to see but I think it is coming, especially as these themes have been shown to be particularly important to younger donors.”

The AI revolution

THINK’s Managing Director Matt Smith focused on AI’s growing role, predicting that 2024 would be about integrating tools into daily operations and addressing their risks and opportunities.

Where are we a year later?

“The rise of AI has been one of 2024’s biggest stories, and we are still coming to terms with what it means for the sector and society at large. Charities of all sizes are now getting to grips with how generative AI and data modelling tools can help them deliver their missions more effectively and efficiently. This year has seen organisations discuss and agree their red lines, and with AI policies now in-place we will see even further integrations in 2025. We expect to see tools like Microsoft CoPilot and ChatGPT become common place in the fundraiser’s toolkit, and even more ethical discussion about how charities could and should use AI in their prospecting and storytelling.”

Navigating complex digital fundraising regulations

Becky Steeden highlighted challenges in adapting to new technologies and regulations, including Meta’s Conversions API and the transition to Google Analytics 4.

Where are we a year later?

“At the start of the year, I expected to see challenges in adapting to new technologies and regulations in digital fundraising, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen, with charities struggling to implement Meta’s Conversions API and transition from Google Analytics Universal to GA4 – processes that have been anything but intuitive. For smaller charities, these changes have felt almost insurmountable, which is only widening the digital gap in the sector.

The updated Fundraising Regulator Code has a very limited focus on digital fundraising. Lots of digital fundraisers feel it lacks substance, particularly in areas like transparency in digital advertising and managing modern privacy concerns.

Adding to the complexity, the new Data (Use and Access) Bill, which retains a lot of the Conservatives’ previously proposed DPDI Bill, introduces changes to data sharing, legitimate interests and automated decision-making. The failure of the previous bill and the change of government has only protracted and exacerbated the uncertainty for charities.

And Meta has just announced that it will be launching updates in January to restrict how website and apps can share data with Meta – this will have major implications for many charities.”

Ethical fundraising under scrutiny

Hannah Hyde foresaw heightened attention on gift acceptance and ethical fundraising, driven by new Charity Commission guidance.

Where are we a year later?

“As predicted, the knotty issue of gift acceptance has been live throughout 2024. Charity Commission guidance, published in March 2024, was aimed specifically at Trustees, stating that a charity’s starting point should always be accepting a gift, unless it is not in the charity’s best interests to do so.

This legal wording presents some grey areas – what exactly constitutes being in a charity’s best interests? As a result, fundraisers, leadership and Boards have continued to grapple with the understandable influence of personal morals and principles, vs. the need to focus on the outcomes of the gift and what it can achieve for a charity’s service users.

Rogare, the independent think tank, published a paper in November 2024 – “Take it or leave it: The ethics of gift acceptance and refusal” – in collaboration with CIOF. The paper gives further guidance on how to navigate the ethics behind making gift acceptance/refusal decisions, acknowledging that policies will never cover every single eventuality.

Charities will need to ensure that these debates remain active in their organisations, and teams should revisit their gift acceptance policies in light of this new guidance to make sure that they are making decisions that truly are in the best interests of the charity, rather than based on moral principles alone.”

Untapped potential in mid-value programmes

Back in January Michelle Chambers also pointed to the opportunity in mid-value programmes, emphasising the potential for greater engagement and income by moving top donors into these tailored programmes.

Where are we a year later?

“The sector remains slow to realise the potential value of a properly constructed and thought-out mid value programme. Donor behaviour during the height of the cost of living crisis showed those most engaged with a cause, recognised need and gave at higher levels. This is a further demonstration of the potential of mid value programmes.”

Evolving workplaces

Amanda Warhaftig predicted that hybrid working would remain a key focus, requiring proactive management to balance flexibility, engagement and productivity.

“Approaches to hybrid working have continued to be a major topic of conversation in 2024, though its implementation has varied across many of the organisations that THINK works with. While some charities have sought to increase in-office attendance this year, others have opted to reduce or even lose office space completely, reducing their cost base and embracing an even more flexible approach.

As predicted, organisations have had to adapt to this new way of working by implementing strategies to foster collaboration, maintain employee engagement, and ensure productivity.

Some key trends that have emerged include:

• The rise of the “hybrid office” – organisations are rethinking their physical workspaces to accommodate both in-person and remote collaboration. This involves creating flexible and adaptable environments that can be easily reconfigured to suit different needs.
• Increased focus on employee wellbeing – hybrid work can blur the lines between work and personal life. Charities are increasingly recognising the importance of supporting employee wellbeing through initiatives such as flexible working hours and mental health resources.
• Advancements in technology – technology has played a crucial role in enabling hybrid work. Collaboration tools, video conferencing platforms, and project management software have become even more sophisticated, facilitating seamless communication and teamwork regardless of location.

As we look to the future, it’s clear that hybrid work will continue to evolve.”

It’s been a year of challenges, progress and valuable lessons for the charity sector. From navigating the complexities of new technologies and ethical decision-making to addressing recruitment hurdles, the sector has continued to demonstrate its adaptability and resolve.

While some trends – like the rise of AI and the evolution of hybrid working – are likely to shape the sector for years to come, others remind us of the ever-changing nature of the world we work in. As we look ahead to 2025, it’s encouraging to see the creativity and determination with which charities are addressing these challenges, ensuring they can continue to make a lasting impact.

You can read our January predictions blog post here in full – and in the New Year, we’ll be sharing our outlook for 2025.

Whether you’re celebrating Christmas or simply enjoying a well-deserved break, we hope it’s restful and spent with those who matter most to you. Here’s to a successful and inspiring year ahead in 2025!

With warmest wishes,

The THINK team
December 2024

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If you would like to discuss our THINKing further, please contact our central office on info@thinkcs.org. You can also find us on LinkedIn at THINK Consulting Solutions, where we share useful industry insights.