Did our 2025 predictions come true? Reflections from the THINK team

Every January, we share our predictions for the year ahead. And every December, we pause to reflect: did those predictions play out? What surprised us? What changed along the way?

Back in January, our team shared their thoughts on the trends, challenges and opportunities shaping fundraising in 2025. You can revisit that post here. Now, as the year draws to a close, we’re looking back at those predictions. Here’s what we predicted, and what happened.

Cost pressures and efficiencies

This time last year THINK’s Chief Executive Michelle Chambers predicted that rising employer National Insurance costs would force charities to focus on cost efficiency and creative ways to retain investment for growth.

Where are we a year later?

“The rising cost base of many charities’ operations has indeed created pressure on fundraising teams. Even where targets are being exceeded, it hasn’t been enough to meet increased costs. We have seen endless restructures and downsizing of teams across charities of all sizes in 2025. As many charities navigate budget setting for 2026/27, the need to think creatively about cost efficiencies and growth priorities across the entire fundraising portfolio is as pressing as ever.”

And John Brady expected cost pressures would drive smarter use of mailing lists, with more focus on retention and deeper donor relationships supported by data.

Where are we a year later?

“The focus on data and on retention has moved more rapidly beyond contact preferences and list selections. Fundraising charities are increasingly investing in new databases with the goal of providing better data analysis and insights. The migration to new database solutions is not always driven by cost; rather it’s the quest for better insight to deepen relationships with the aim of generating more fundraised income.”

Supporter experience and engagement

Amanda Warhaftig predicted that demand for roles focused on supporter experience would grow, with charities mapping and optimising donor journeys using data.

Where are we a year later?

“Over the past year, charities have continued to prioritise the optimisation of donor journeys, with many organisations either creating new roles or expanding existing teams focused on supporter engagement, insight and journey mapping. The shift towards using data to understand donor behaviour, identify friction points and refine touchpoints is becoming more visible across the sector. More organisations are integrating supporter experience as a cross-organisational effort rather than a standalone function, embedding its principles into fundraising, communications and volunteering in a way that aligned closely with what we anticipated for 2025. Supporters have continued to demonstrate a desire for tailored interactions, clear communication and more transparent insight into how their support makes a difference.

“We have also seen a growing sensitivity to accessibility, with some charities taking steps to adjust channels, language and processes to better support vulnerable groups. At the same time, charities are exploring the challenge of meeting the needs of highly engaged, digitally confident supporters while ensuring no one was left behind. This is underpinning the drive to become much more deliberate in using data to understand motivations, segment audiences and design communications that feel empathetic and relevant.”

Emma O’Reilly expected legacy giving to grow, driven by tax changes, and that younger donors would play a bigger role in charitable giving.

Where are we a year later?

“As we come to the end of 2025, we’re clearly seeing legacy income continue to rise, with more charitable estates and higher gift values being reported. It’s still a bit too early to say whether this growth is directly linked to the upcoming inheritance tax changes, especially as some of the increase may be due to the clearing of probate backlogs. However, the continued freeze on inheritance tax thresholds in the 2025 autumn budget does support the idea that more estates will be drawn into scope in the coming years, which could encourage more people to leave gifts to charity. So while the prediction hasn’t fully played out yet, the signs this year suggest it’s very much on the right track.

Looking back at this prediction now, I’d say it wasn’t completely wrong — but it was a bit optimistic. There are charities starting to see real momentum with younger donors, especially those investing in digital engagement, flexible ways to give, strong stories about impact and causes that really matter to younger people. But this hasn’t happened across the board. The wider data shows that giving among younger age groups has actually dipped this year, which suggests that the shift I predicted hasn’t fully come through. And that’s understandable: 2025 has been a tough year for budgets, and most charities have understandably stuck with tried-and-tested fundraising approaches rather than investing in new audiences. So in hindsight, the prediction relied on charities having the space, confidence and resources to change how they work — and that’s a big ask in a year like this. The potential is still there, but it’s clear that reaching it will take more time and more investment than I originally anticipated.”

Digital disruption and diversity

THINK’s Managing Director Matt Smith predicted that crowdfunding would make a comeback as donors sought transparency and immediacy.

Where are we a year later?

“We did see a number of high-profile crowdfunding campaigns in 2025, with arguably the biggest in the partnership between Mr Beast and WaterAid. The YouTuber launched his #TeamWater crowdfunder at the start of August and went on to raise over $41 million dollars from his supporters and influencer friends. There have also been several successes on smaller scales most notably crowdfunders from Canal & River Trust who have raised over £70,000 across campaigns. Similarly, animal-focused crowdfunders from Mayhew and Edinburgh Dog & Cat Home have worked well when focused on helping a specific cat or dog.

“What we’ve learnt is that the combination of the latest tools (Tiltify and Crowdfunder are favourites), social proof and the right story have made crowdfunding a particularly effective tactic for fundraisers planning their 2026.”

Becky Steeden emphasised the need to diversify away from Meta as platform changes and broader digital shifts disrupt established strategies.

Where are we a year later?

“I absolutely stand by my prediction but the story was more nuanced than I expected. Meta’s changes caused real anxiety across the sector and in some cases, knee-jerk reactions. There was confusion caused by Meta’s vague press releases and misinterpretation rather than the actual technical changes. The result was that some charities probably pulled spend unnecessarily.

At the same time, the shift toward AI-driven ad automation is undeniable. Meta is stripping back manual controls and leaning on AI for targeting and creative. It’s a big change for those of us used to granular targeting control.

The biggest takeaway for me is the same drum I’ve been banging for the last four or five years! Diversification isn’t optional anymore and neither is building first-party data.”

Simon Dickson highlighted that AI would grow rapidly in fundraising, from proposal writing to prospect research, but that human relationships would remain vital.

Where are we a year later?

“AI has probably grown more than anyone expected in 2025 and for once, my predictions came true – it is being used openly in proposal development by charities and application assessment by grant givers. It is still bigger in the US with tools like Grant Assist and Grant Boost (proposal development) and Grant Guardian (grant assessment) out there in the market for use. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Tools like ChatGPT and its various agents are able to produce research outputs in seconds on donors and their giving history and can now produce pitch decks to match the donor motivations identified. It’s still far from perfect, but is a massive leap forward. I was worried about the implications but what is happening positively is freeing up fundraiser time to do the stuff AI can’t do quite as well at the moment – build a personal relationship. That said, it may not be long before that becomes a reality. I am sure I have been having chats with bots that I didn’t even know weren’t real people.”

Recruitment experience

THINK’s Senior Recruitment Manager Jo McGuinness was expecting candidates to prioritise culture and flexibility, pushing charities to adopt more candidate-centric recruitment processes.

Where are we a year later?

“We’ve continued to see candidates prioritise wellbeing and genuine flexibility over salary alone, despite an external landscape that hasn’t always felt stable. Candidates no longer feel the need to stay in cultures that undermine their wellbeing. Alongside a lot of charity-to-charity churn we have also seen an influx of talent leaving in-house roles. Many have joined the THINK Interim network, or looking to try freelance life. Hiring managers might not love it, but they definitely understand candidate churn more than they did a year ago.

“We’ve seen some noticeable improvement in the candidate experience across selection processes, particularly from charities that struggled with vacancies and had to their processes to attract talent. But progress is still slow and traditional/out-of-date thinking from hiring managers still remains. Candidates continue to praise processes that feel transparent, timely and respectful, and call out those that feel slow or overly demanding – or vote with their feet and withdraw from those processes.

‘My standout insight from this year is that candidate experience directly influences offer acceptance. Organisations who embraced candidate-centred selection processes and demonstrate their values through recruitment have seen higher acceptance rates and reduced drop-out.”

Looking back, 2025 was a year of both acceleration and constraint. Cost pressures reshaped teams and priorities. AI moved faster than many expected, transforming everything from grant applications to donor research. Supporter experience became a cross-organisational focus in places, while digital diversification and ethical fundraising debates kept everyone on their toes.

As we head into 2026, one thing is clear: adaptability remains the sector’s greatest strength. We’ll be sharing our predictions for the year ahead in January and we’d love to hear yours. What do you think will shape fundraising in 2026?

You can read our January predictions blog post here in full – and in the New Year, we’ll be sharing our outlook for 2026.

Whether you’re celebrating Christmas or simply enjoying a well-deserved break, we hope it’s restful and spent with those who matter most to you. Here’s to a successful and inspiring year ahead!

With warmest wishes,

The THINK team
December 2025

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If you would like to discuss our THINKing further, please contact our central office on info@thinkcs.org. You can also find us on LinkedIn at THINK Consulting Solutions, where we share useful industry insights.